Week 57 - 20+ Mental Models to Level Up Your PM Skills
Quote
"A mental model is to the mind what a tool is to the hand - an instrument for doing work." - Shane Parrish
Poll
💯 Framework // Concept // Mental Model
Hey readers! 👋 In this edition, we'll see how mental models can boost your PM expertise.
What Are Mental Models?
Mental models are simplified representations of the world that help us make better decisions.
They provide versatile thinking tools that shortcut complex reasoning. Mental models capture the core theories underlying how things work.
Why Do They Matter for PMs?
Mental models bring order to ambiguity by giving PMs principles to guide decisions. They help:
💎 Filter signal from noise
🗣 Communicate complex ideas
💪 Counter biases
🔎 Solve problems from new angles
🔮 Anticipate outcomes
🌟 Continuously improve
Great PMs build a broad library of models over time that they can tap into instinctively. Let's check out some of the most useful ones.
Models to Identify Opportunities
🚶♂️ Jobs-to-Be-Done - People "hire" and "fire" products based on making progress in life
📊 Adoption Lifecycle - Innovations are adopted in phases by groups
⚔️ Dual Market Theory - Disrupt existing markets while creating new ones
These models reveal where the biggest opportunities are and suggest targeted strategies.
🚶♂️Jobs-to-Be-Done
This model examines how people "hire" products to make progress in specific life situations, and "fire" them when no longer useful. It shifts the focus from demographics or attributes to helping users achieve outcomes.
To apply it, interview customers and uncover their "jobs" where your product can help. Watch for "firing" signals when needs change. Evolve the product to continually provide value.
📊 Market Sizing
This model involves segmenting the market, estimating adoption rates, and calculating total addressable market (TAM) for your product.
Break the market into logical segments. Product adoption rates based on product-market fit and go-to-market plans. Multiply segments by adoption rate to get TAM - the revenue opportunity. Use it to prioritize which segments to target.
Source: https://powerslides.com/powerpoint-marketing/analytics-templates/market-size-slide/
⚔️ Dual Market Theory
This model balances attacking existing markets to gain short-term wins while creating new markets for future growth.
For an existing market, re-segment it and position your product as better. For a new market, articulate the shift you see and educate customers. Balance both approaches.
Models to Understand Customers
🗺 Empathy Mapping - Holistically capture what users think, feel, see, hear, say, and do
🗺️ User Journeys - Map the step-by-step process users take to reach goals
👥 Buyer Personas - Create fictional representations of customer segments
These models help you empathize with users, find simple truths, assume good intent, and ease their experience.
🗺 Empathy Mapping
This model provides a template for capturing what customers are thinking, feeling, seeing, hearing, saying, and doing throughout their relationship with your product.
Interview users and fill in the map. Keep it visibly front and center in your workspace. Refer to it often so the customer stays top of mind in your decision-making. Update as you learn more.
🗺️ User Journeys
This model visualizes the key stages users go through to accomplish their goals and complete tasks. Map out the step-by-step journey to see pain points and opportunities.
Walk through their process, and identify emotions at each touchpoint.
👥 Buyer Personas
This model creates fictional representations of key customer segments to bring ideal users to life. Include details like demographics, behaviors, goals, and frustrations.
Reference personas when making decisions - how would they react? Ensure you address their needs. Keep expanding your understanding of customers.
Models to Craft Solutions
🌐 Systems Thinking - Map interconnected relationships to understand ripple effects
🧠 Design Thinking - Empathize, define, ideate, prototype, and test to develop human-centric solutions
🗯 Experimentation - Form hypothesis, build MVPs, measure, learn. Validate with data.
🕵️♀️ Root Cause Analysis - Identify core origin versus symptoms of issues
📦 MECE Options - Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive choices
🏎 Satisficing - Seek good enough solutions quickly over perfection
🎯 Pareto Principle - 80% of value comes from 20% of effort
These models help frame issues holistically, present focused options, move faster through bias-for-action, and focus on disproportionate results.
🌐 Systems Thinking
This model views challenges as part of an overall system, with interconnected parts and feedback loops. Changing one factor ripples outward.
Avoid siloed thinking. Map out all contributing influences and relationships. Consider wider system impacts of potential solutions. Coordinate change across touchpoints.
🧠 Design Thinking
This model provides a methodology to build human-centric solutions: Empathize with users, Define the problem, Ideate solutions, Prototype promising concepts, Test with customers. It promotes a deep understanding of problems before jumping to solutions.
Immerse yourself in the customer's perspective. Frame the right problem to tackle. Brainstorm creative approaches. Capture ideas through rough prototypes and get feedback. Iterate rapidly.
🗯 Experimentation
This model leverages forming hypotheses, building MVPs, measuring outcomes, and learning to validate solutions.
State assumptions upfront. Design small, fast experiments to test key questions. Build prototypes to collect data. Analyze results and learnings. Continuously refine concepts. Stay data-driven.
🕵️♀️ Root Cause Analysis
This model digs deeper to identify root causes versus just symptoms of issues. Resist applying quick band-aids.
Ask "why" 5 times to understand origins. Look for crucial leverage points. Address core problems once for lasting change. Prevent future recurrence
Source: https://kanbanize.com/lean-management/improvement/5-whys-analysis-tool
📦 MECE Options
This model ensures options are mutually exclusive from each other and collectively exhaustive so no possibilities are missed.
Brainstorm choices independently rather than incrementally. Eliminate overlap between options. Fill gaps to address the full scope. Present coherent, focused choices.
🏎 Satisficing
This model seeks solutions that are good enough and fast, not perfect. Meet the key needs then ship, avoid over-engineering.
Define the must-haves. Scope to hit those bars, not every wishlist item. Ship the viable minimum then iterate. Let data guide where to optimize.
🎯 Pareto Principle
This model leverages how most outputs result from a vital few inputs. 80% of value often comes from 20% of effort.
Audit where outcomes are produced. Invest in the high-impact 20% and don't over-optimize the lower results. Apply this lens to features, audiences, channels, etc. to focus effort.
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Models to Align Vision
🚀 Backcasting - Envision the future then work backwards to the present to chart how to get there
🎯 OKRs - Objectives and Key Results to align activity to mission
🗡 Spear in the Chest - Simple, bold vision that anyone can grasp
These models help define a north star, create milestones, dig into root issues, and rally people around purpose.
🚀 Backcasting
This model starts with defining a desired future end state and then works backward to identify the strategic steps to get there.
Imagine a bold future milestone. Reverse engineer the precursors and sequence of initiatives needed to achieve it. Lay out the roadmap to activate.
Source: https://energyfutureslab.com/backcasting-starting-with-the-end-in-mind/
🎯 OKRs
This model sets Objectives - the qualitative goal - and Key Results - quantitative milestones that map progress. It aligns priorities across the organization.
Set 1-3 Objectives for the next 3-12 months. Define 2-5 measurable Key Results per Objective. Drive towards hitting those outcomes. Review and adjust quarterly.
🗡 Spear in the Chest
This model advocates articulating a clear vision in seconds that guides decisions. Paint the picture of the future state.
Synthesize your ambition into a succinct statement anyone can grasp. Use it as a guiding star for choices - does it move towards or away from the vision?
Models to Track Progress
🎯💯 SMART Goals - Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Timely
📊 KPIs - Key indicators that track objectives
🔜🔚 Leading vs. Lagging Metrics - Leading predicts the future, lagging trail past
🔎 Slicing Data - Analyze metrics by segments and cohorts
These models help set clearer goals, monitor what matters, look forward and back, and surface insights.
🎯💯 SMART Goals
This model ensures goals are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. It makes them easier to execute.
For each goal articulate: Specific objectives, Measurable criteria, Achievable but ambitious targets, Relevance to the mission, and Timeline. This focuses efforts.
Source: https://education.chatterboxtherapycenter.com/smart-goal-template
📊 KPIs
This model identifies the key performance indicators that track if objectives are being met. They quantify progress.
Determine most critical goals. Define 1-2 metrics that measure them. Establish current baselines, targets, and timeframes. Monitor KPIs, review frequently.
🔜🔚 Leading vs. Lagging Metrics
This model distinguishes between leading indicators that predict the future and lagging metrics that trail the past.
Lead with leading metrics. Spot trends early and forecast what's next. Use lagging metrics to validate outcomes. Balance both perspectives.
🔎 Slicing Data
This model looks at data cuts by specific segments, cohorts, and user paths to uncover deeper insights.
Avoid analysis at aggregate levels alone. Filter by attributes like location, gender, usage frequency, etc. See how metrics differ by slice. Look for patterns.
OKRs (Objectives and Key Results)
Sets ambitious goals and measurable outcomes.
Application: Ideal for aligning teams around strategic objectives, can be used at all levels of an organization.
These models are not mutually exclusive and can often complement each other. For example, OKRs can include SMART Goals and KPIs as key results. Leading and lagging metrics can be monitored through the KPIs. Slicing Data can give more granular insights into KPIs or OKRs.
By applying these frameworks thoughtfully, you can gain a comprehensive view of your progress and drive meaningful improvement.
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Bringing Mental Models to Life
To apply them effectively:
🧠 Study them deeply to internalize the core principles
⚙️ Test them across different scenarios
💫 Add, refine, and remove from your latticework over time
👥 Discuss them with colleagues to develop a shared language
📝 Document when they yield breakthroughs or fall short
Avoid rigid adherence. Stay nimble and keep growing your capabilities as a product thinker!
Boost Your Product Chops
Hopefully, this overview inspires you to explore mental models more. Truly skillful PMs constantly expand their latticework.
What models do you find most useful? Are there any glaring omissions? Let me know - I'd love to hear your thoughts!
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Great model. Well explained. Kindly add the theory of constraints model.
Love all the touch points! I like to use the Opportunity Solution Tree to identify opportunities.